Population Statistics

Compiled by Liz McMahon 20/4/2010

CURRENT SITUATION

1. The official population for the Cooma-Monaro Shire is the ABS Estimated Resident Population (ERP) which was 10,174 at 30/6/2006 (final figure) and 10,416 (preliminary) as at 30/6/2009.

2. ERP counts are the basis for allocation of government funds to regional areas.

3. Census counts are generally about 5% less than ERP counts.

Population Projections

1. Population projections are demographic calculations based on assumptions about fertility,mortality and migration. They are NOT forecasts.

2. Projections are used by government to identify potential growth areas.

3. The standard population projections are produced by NSW Department of Planning. Their latest projections (2010) show Cooma-Monaro population increasing marginally over the next 30 years. Net migration is assumed to be zero.

4. Another set of projections was produced by ANU for Cooma-Monaro Shire Council in 2008. Projections were made for the shire and the urban areas within the shire. The purpose was to identify urban area water needs.
Assumptions:
  * Projection 2a - strong out-migration of 15-25 year olds and no in-migration - resulting in strong population decline
  * Projection 1 and 2b - Zero net migration - result - marginal population decline.

CONCLUSIONS DRAWN
1. Population trends can change - Cooma population reached a low in 2000, but has since improved (possibly due to the re-opening of Cooma Correctional Centre and the Defence Call Centre).

RECOMMENDED ACTION

1. Change the signs at the entrance to Cooma every 5 years when final population data are available.